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Check4Trick

Financial risk monitoring system Check4Trick

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Energy4Cast

Forecsys Planning Solution
A system for forecasting the price and volume of demand for electrical energy

Антиплагиат

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Energy4Cast

Опытные внедрения:

Energy4Cast - Forecsys Planning Solution

Purpose

Energy4Cast (Forecsys Planning Solution) is a solution for energy suppliers and energy retail companies. The system is designed to forecast prices and consumer demand on the wholesale electricity market (WEM). It increases a company’s efficiency by reducing the amount of money spent on sales and purchases of electricity on the fluctuating market and also by giving advice on bilateral agreements.

Product Description

The system described above forecasts prices for all the hubs and specifies the cost for the relevant delivery point cluster (DPC). The predictions take into account additional factors, including weather, climate and wind conditions, prices of energy carriers, prices in neighbouring hubs, KPI of energy companies, public holidays, and other indicators. The system also allows for those arbitrary factors which experts would consider important.

The system produces automatic recommendations for electricity orders; this frees employees from performing routine takes, allowing them to focus on specialised circumstances in which it is impossible to rely on automated predictions. It also reduces the scope for human error and operational risks.

The system can be used to create and compare various forecasting algorithms. These forecasts can be adjusted by a specialist in order to take into account his own evaluation of external factors. The accuracy of the forecasts and other indicators (including price fluctuation) are re-evaluated on a daily basis, thereby providing a level of quality control which makes the forecasts even more effective at predicting the WEM.

Energy4Cast advantages:

  • highly accurate automated forecasting of prices and volumes of electricity on the WEM;
  • above standard technical analysis which combines unique technologies used for both basic and technical analysis;
  • fundamental analysis designed by our partner company Teider and based on a unique imitation model of the Russian energy system;
  • automated accuracy control for forecasts;
  • financial risk evaluation( a confidence interval is evaluated together with every forecast);
  • individual settings on the forecasting models for every DPC.

Functional Possibilities

The system calculates the following areas several days in advance for every DPC on a daily basis (or on any other basis if so required by the user):

  • hourly market price forecasts several days in advance;
  • hourly supply volume and consumer demand forecasts;
  • advice on order size;
  • the accuracy of previous forecasts;
  • the financial losses incurred by the company as a result of inaccurate forecasts.

The system allows the user to calculate the cost of electricity delivery during a given time period using pre-constructed price, demand, and supply forecasting models.

The system contains the following modules:

  1. Fundamental Analysis» Module.
    Analysis, simulation and forecast of energy companies’ KPI using imitation models designed by our partner company Teider. An evaluation and report of technical and industrial risks.
  2.  «Loading Data» Module.
    Consolidated data from various sources, automated data collection process, monitoring the loading history.
  3. «Visual Analysis» Module.
    Expert analysis and visualisation of basic data and the results of the simulation.
  4. «Forecasting» Module.
    Automated price, demand, and supply forecasting for the electricity market. Processing of basic data. The creation of models and quality control monitoring of said models.
    Рис.1. Модуль прогнозирования
  5. «Delivery Planning» Module.
    Improving orders for electricity deliveries using a pre-constructed price, volume, and demand forecasting system. Selects the best terms on which to conclude the bilateral agreement.
  6. «Accounting» Module.
    Quality control monitoring of the forecasting models and economic effect.

System uses:

  • visual analysis of data;
  • to create and evaluate the quality of the forecasting models;
  • to forecast the effect of external factors;
  • to plan demand and supply of electricity.

The accuracy of the forecast can be tested using the data of several participating companies on the wholesale electricity market. On average, the accuracy of forecasts increases by 10-30% when the system is used. As a result of more accurate forecasts, and also due to the method of evaluating risk and improving (adjusting) the number of orders made your will be able to see a real financial benefit from using our system.

Case Study: Inter RAS UES: ‘Aprel 1.0’ — an automated decision support system for the energy markets «Aprel 1.0».

During the design of Energy4Cast we used our experience of developing energy forecasting systems for the North European energy market NordPool, with which Forecsys worked from 2001-2004. The system is now used in Inter-RAS UES and a number of Finnish companies.